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Vicat 8 avril 2013
2013-03-13T18:18:12+00:00
2013-03-13T18:18:12+00:00
https://a-f-finance.com/analyses-valeurs/85-vicat-8-avril-2013
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Des analyses ambivalentes préalables à une annonce de résultats de marché le 8/3/2012 laissent présager deux scénarii. Vicat est à un point critique : soit un retournement et une confiance en le management malgré des résultats inférieurs aux prévisions, et une remontée vers 50 euros pour une cinquième vague de hausse, soit une perte de crédibilité et un retour prévisible vers les planchers de 2012.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Après une baisse correspondant à 2 pattes baissières d’égale hauteur, et après un dernière baisse suite à la publication des résultats, Vicat doit faire un choix entre corriger et sortir du triangle baissier, portée par les commentaires des analystes visant une gestion familiale du groupe, p<strong>o</strong></span><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">rtée sur le long terme, ou une impulsion baissière, portée par des résultats certes moindres que ceux prévues, mais bien plus substantielle que pour des groupes dont le cours post annonce a réagi en hausse ce matin, mais avec des perspectives plus faibles (Lagardère par exemple).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">A noter un dividende de 1,5 euros confirmé et payable en mai 203.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Donc 2 scénariii : correction positive vers les 26, puis 5<sup>ème</sup> vague d’une impulsion haussière commencée mi 2012 vers les 50euros.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">voir l'article en entier<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Soit, refus des discours certes encourageants mais trop abstraits et impulsion baissière vers les 40 euros dans un premier temps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Nous privilégions le scénario positif.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;"><a href="images/VicatMarch2013.pdf">Voir l'article en entier</a><br /></span></p></div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Des analyses ambivalentes préalables à une annonce de résultats de marché le 8/3/2012 laissent présager deux scénarii. Vicat est à un point critique : soit un retournement et une confiance en le management malgré des résultats inférieurs aux prévisions, et une remontée vers 50 euros pour une cinquième vague de hausse, soit une perte de crédibilité et un retour prévisible vers les planchers de 2012.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Après une baisse correspondant à 2 pattes baissières d’égale hauteur, et après un dernière baisse suite à la publication des résultats, Vicat doit faire un choix entre corriger et sortir du triangle baissier, portée par les commentaires des analystes visant une gestion familiale du groupe, p<strong>o</strong></span><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">rtée sur le long terme, ou une impulsion baissière, portée par des résultats certes moindres que ceux prévues, mais bien plus substantielle que pour des groupes dont le cours post annonce a réagi en hausse ce matin, mais avec des perspectives plus faibles (Lagardère par exemple).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">A noter un dividende de 1,5 euros confirmé et payable en mai 203.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Donc 2 scénariii : correction positive vers les 26, puis 5<sup>ème</sup> vague d’une impulsion haussière commencée mi 2012 vers les 50euros.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">voir l'article en entier<br /></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Soit, refus des discours certes encourageants mais trop abstraits et impulsion baissière vers les 40 euros dans un premier temps.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Nous privilégions le scénario positif.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;"><a href="images/VicatMarch2013.pdf">Voir l'article en entier</a><br /></span></p></div>
Club Méditerranée
2013-03-13T18:15:22+00:00
2013-03-13T18:15:22+00:00
https://a-f-finance.com/analyses-valeurs/84-club-mediterranee
Super User
postmaster@a-f-finance.com
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<p class="MsoNormal">Club Med<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>8/3/2013</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Suite aux rumeurs de montée en puissance du fonds chinois Fosun, et avec une rentabilité très faible, L’action Club Med a connu des volatilités très hautes début 2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">En conclusion des analyses de finance comportementale, une forte probabilité du scénario bleu de croissance jusqu’à la droite de soutien, proche des 15 euros.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ceci en contradiction avec des analyses techniques qui voient le titre baissier vers les 13 euros.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Les annonces de résultats mitigées de 2012 n’ont pas modifié ce scénario, puisque le titre a confirmé sa hausse le jour de l’annonce de ces résultats, en privilégiant l’aspect positif du début d’année 2013.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="images/ClubMedMarch2013.pdf">Voir l'article en entier</a></p></div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Club Med<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>8/3/2013</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Suite aux rumeurs de montée en puissance du fonds chinois Fosun, et avec une rentabilité très faible, L’action Club Med a connu des volatilités très hautes début 2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">En conclusion des analyses de finance comportementale, une forte probabilité du scénario bleu de croissance jusqu’à la droite de soutien, proche des 15 euros.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Ceci en contradiction avec des analyses techniques qui voient le titre baissier vers les 13 euros.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Les annonces de résultats mitigées de 2012 n’ont pas modifié ce scénario, puisque le titre a confirmé sa hausse le jour de l’annonce de ces résultats, en privilégiant l’aspect positif du début d’année 2013.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="images/ClubMedMarch2013.pdf">Voir l'article en entier</a></p></div>